Generation adequacy reports

Forecast assessment of electricity supply-demand balance

Background

Generation Adequacy Report : a tool to assess security of supply in terms of the supply demand balance of electricity

In accordance with French legislation, each year RTE drafts and publishes the ‘Generation Adequacy Report’ concerning the supply demand balance of electricity. As a diagnostic reference for security of supply and of the electric network, the report is a key corporate exercise which is used to shed light on the medium to long term forecasts for security of supply, and therefore to develop national energy policies.

The year 2016 marks a real turning point in climate and energy policy. Taken together, the decisions made during the year will have a lasting impact on security of electricity supply in France.

With energy efficiency gathering so much momentum, for the first time, scenarios have been drawn up calling for a reduction in power demand over five years. A decline in consumption in France from 479 TWh in 2015 to 471 TWh in 2021 is now envisaged. Peak demand forecasts follow a similar trend. Energy efficiency measures, notably in the residential and service sectors, will keep consumption in check despite a surge in new end-uses for electricity and a more favourable economic climate.

Solar photovoltaic and wind power continue to steadily gain ground in France, and a new roadmap prepared in 2016 sets higher targets for 2018 and 2023.

This is a crucial time for fossil-fi red capacity given the economic challenges the sector faces. A number of factors are creating uncertainty for generators: the absence of end-markets for semi base load and peak generation, the lack of visibility on how the French capacity mechanism will be implemented given the investigation launched by the European Commission, and the debate under way about the carbon price. Some producers are waiting to have a better idea of the economic outlook for fossil-fi red generation before deciding what to do with their gas and coal plants.

The implications may vary depending on the strategies and generation portfolios of the players in question.

For all of these reasons, RTE has drastically revised its assumptions about future trends in fossil-fi red capacity relative to the 2015 edition.

Generation adequacy report 2016 Generation adequacy report 2016 - Executive summary

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