Pylone Venaus Villarodin
 Pylone Venaus Villarodin

Projected supply estimates

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Also known as the multi-annual projected supply forecast, this forward-looking document alternately covers a 5 or 15-year period. It is drawn up in conjunction with all of the sector’s players: generating facilities, electricity and gas suppliers and distributors, NGOs, business organisations, universities, think tanks and institutions.

 

Summary of the 2021 projected supply estimate : power system outlook for 2030


A power system that is in transition and gradually restoring its margins

 
The trajectories that have been analysed identify three phases, with an underlying trend of capacity margin recovery once the principles for Multiannual Programming of Energy [1] are properly implemented:    
Vigilance until 2024. The margins are slim due to degraded availability of the nuclear fleet (resulting from the Covid-19 crisis and postponement of maintenance works), delays with the Flamanville EPR project, and cumulative delays with the new renewable generation facilities (essentially offshore windfarms, growing solar capacity, and onshore wind power to a lesser extent). The winter of 2021-2022 presents a picture similar to last winter and will be classified as under ‘heightened scrutiny’.


Transition from 2024 to 2026. The power system regains operating margins that are acceptable, but not yet comfortable. The commissioning of the Flamanville EPR, offshore farms and on-shore renewables, as well as the development of demand-side response and interconnections, all contribute to this improvement.  


Marked improvement from 2026 to 2030: the scenarios studied lead to increased margins and safe supply compared to where we are today, strengthening the resilience of the power system to climate or industrial contingencies.


Re-establish margins to support transformation of the energy mix 


RTE has identified key drivers to improve security of supply, particularly in the short term: 

  • Step up efforts to develop renewables (wind and solar power) to reach the targets under the Multiannual Programming of Energy [1], 
  • Proceed with the actions that are already underway to increase nuclear fleet availability, 
  • Ensure that low-carbon generation facilities possibly considered for closure by 2026 continue operating,
  • Speed up the development of flexibility solutions for electricity demand.

 

Looking ahead to 2030: the power system, driver of the low-carbon pathway 
 

In order to decarbonise the economy, a number of sectors, such as transport, industry and construction, will gradually shift towards electricity (at the expense of fossil fuels).


Due to this electrification, the report predicts a modest increase in electricity consumption by 2030 (+5% compared to 2019). At the same time, thanks to greater equipment energy efficiency and improved flexibility management made possible by new uses of electricity, non-flexible peak winter consumption could decrease by around 3 GW [2].
Lastly, in 2030, even partial achievement of the objectives of Multiannual Programming of Energy and SNBC [3] will have cut CO2 emissions in France by 30 to 40 MtCO2 a year (-10 MtCO2 through the energy system itself, and -20 to -30 MtCO2 resulting from switches in energy use to electricity). 


These emissions will not be offloaded to our European neighbours. The carbon footprint for imports (already small, in the order of 1 MtCO2) will continue to shrink. Even better, France will be an exporter and thus contribute to reducing emissions at the European level (from 30 to 40 MtCO2 per year leading up to 2030).
 
[1] PPE: Programmation Pluriannuelle de l’Énergie – French initiative on Multiannual Programming of Energy
[2] Approximately equivalent to the output of 3 nuclear reactors  
[3] Multiannual Programming of Energy / National Low Carbon Strategy  
 
 

Xavier Piechaczyk, Président du Directoire RTE
Xavier Piechaczyk
Président du Directoire

The power system is in transition and we have to improve short-term margins to ensure more measured management of supply. But we have already set out on the road to decarbonation, not only of the power system itself, but more broadly of the economy as a whole, by enabling switches in energy use from fossil fuels to electricity. This is key to reaching our climate targets.

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