Projected supply estimates
Also known as the multi-annual projected supply forecast, this forward-looking document alternately covers a 5 or 15-year period. It is drawn up in conjunction with all of the sector’s players: generating facilities, electricity and gas suppliers and distributors, NGOs, business organisations, universities, think tanks and institutions.
Summary of the 2019 projected supply estimate
The 2019 version of the projected supply estimate updates the assessment of changes in the electricity supply/demand balance for a 5-year period from 2020-2025. This assessment is based on the latest information and decisions concerning changes in consumption and the generation fleet.
Three phases leading up to 2025
In the light of this information, RTE identifies a three-phase trend covering the period of 2020 to 2025.
2019-2022: A power system tailored to Europe’s needs
Following the winter of 2019-2020, Fessenheim nuclear power plant and the first set of coal-fired power plants were shut down. These closures are being offset by the newly commissioned Landivisiau combined-cycle power plant, the continued development of renewables and the commissioning of two new interconnectors with the UK and Italy.
2022-2023: Security of supply under focus
The closure of fossil-fired generating facilities is continuing with the shut-down of the last coal-fired plants. At the same time, the nuclear fleet is undergoing an extensive cycle of ten-year outages which affects its availability to the grid. Additionally, numerous European countries are closing down fossil-fired and nuclear plants. While an increasing number of renewables are being integrated over this period, it is not enough to offset the completed closures without commissioning the Flamanville EPR.
In order to maintain security of supply, RTE has identified three enablers: controlling consumption; rationalising the schedule of nuclear-reactor shut-downs and the continued operation or biomass conversion of one or two Cordemais generating units, for as long as the Flamanville EPR has not been commissioned. This life extension during periods where the power system is under strain would be compatible with the annual emission ceilings being considered within the scope of the energy-climate act.
2023-2025: A more positive combination of factors
Security of supply should improve by the end of this period. This improvement will be due to the swifter commissioning of renewable generation facilities (more specifically offshore wind farms), to an optimised nuclear-plant maintenance programme and to the commissioning of the Flamanville EPR unit.